Sat, Apr 11, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 16 | 210 | 013 | 04 | 2 | 433 |
| TOR | 26 | 16 | 08 | 02 | 0 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:58TORPhil KesselAssists: Tyler Bozak, Andrew MacWilliam · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 4:14MTLDavid DesharnaisUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 14:04TORCasey BaileyAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Peter Holland · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 0:59MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Andrei Markov, Devante Smith-Pelly · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 5:11TORTyler BozakAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 19:51MTLJacob de la RoseUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MTL Alex Galchenyuk scored
- 2. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
- 3. MTL David Desharnais scored
- 4. TOR Joffrey Lupul stopped
Penalties (14)
- P1 18:39MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:40MTLAlexei Emelin: Holding2 min
- P2 8:13TORCasey Bailey: Interference2 min
- P2 17:36MTLAlexei Emelin: Clipping2 min
- P2 17:36TOREric Brewer: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:40MTLJeff Petry: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:40TORJames van Riemsdyk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:40TORDion Phaneuf: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:34TORJake Gardiner: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:38MTLDale Weise: High sticking2 min
- OT 0:30MTLP.K. Subban: High sticking2 min
- OT 4:22MTLAndrei Markov: Game misconduct10 min
- OT 4:22MTLPA Parenteau: Game misconduct10 min
- OT 4:56MTLP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk9:35
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Prust – Mitchell – Flynn5:33
xG 0.07–0.01 (85%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Desharnais – Smith-Pelly10:12
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Eller – Weise – de la Rose9:13
xG 0.13–0.65 (17%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Beaulieu9:40
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban15:41
xG 0.56–0.65 (46%)attempts 22–14goals 3–1
- Emelin – Petry15:55
xG 0.09–0.39 (18%)attempts 11–17goals 0–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:49
xG 0.55–0.35 (61%)attempts 18–19goals 2–1
- Lindstrom – Lupul – Kadri3:01
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Orr – Booth – Sill4:50
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Kadri – Panik8:09
xG 0.15–0.25 (37%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Phaneuf9:28
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Rielly12:07
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Gardiner – Erixon3:24
xG 0.08–0.03 (75%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).