Sat, Apr 11, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Anaheim Ducks 2, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 114 | 116 | 08 | 238 |
| ARI | 04 | 09 | 111 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:41ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Corey Perry · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 19:23ANAJakob SilfverbergGWGAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 13:59ARISam GagnerAssists: Martin Erat, David Moss · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:30ANATomas Fleischmann: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:59ARIConnor Murphy: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:39ARIConnor Murphy: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:59ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:01ARIKlas Dahlbeck: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:57ARIB.J. Crombeen: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:57ANATim Jackman: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:43ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Arcobello
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Getzlaf – Perry10:55
xG 0.62–0.07 (90%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Jackman – Thompson – Etem6:30
xG 0.48–0.15 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kesler – Beleskey – Silfverberg8:20
xG 0.64–0.58 (53%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Rakell2:03
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Fowler13:34
xG 0.65–0.23 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Stoner – Vatanen14:02
xG 0.82–0.57 (59%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm16:57
xG 0.40–0.48 (45%)attempts 10–22goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Arcobello – Rieder9:24
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Erat – Crombeen – Gagner2:16
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Erat – Moss – Gagner8:38
xG 0.20–0.32 (39%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Crombeen – Vitale – McGinn8:45
xG 0.48–0.67 (42%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Ekman-Larsson18:26
xG 0.82–0.63 (57%)attempts 26–14goals 0–2
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy2:11
xG 0.09–0.07 (58%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Campbell – Dahlbeck12:00
xG 0.13–0.64 (17%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).