Wed, Oct 7, 2015·United Center, Chicago
New York Rangers 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 311 | 09 | 07 | 327 |
| CHI | 112 | 18 | 014 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:43NYROscar LindbergAssists: J.T. Miller, Viktor Stalberg · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 14:24CHIArtemi PanarinAssists: Patrick Kane, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 16:38NYRKevin KleinAssists: Keith Yandle, J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 19:01NYRDerek StepanGWGAssists: Kevin Hayes, Chris Kreider · Tip-in, 0.28 xG3–1
- P2 6:55CHITeuvo TeravainenAssists: Marian Hossa, Jonathan Toews · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 6:19NYRMats Zuccarello: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:41CHIAndrew Shaw: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:41NYRKeith Yandle: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Hayes13:19
xG 0.90–0.57 (61%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Stoll – Moore – Fast11:28
xG 0.49–0.38 (56%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Miller8:54
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello13:08
xG 0.48–0.70 (40%)attempts 10–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Staal9:13
xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Klein – Yandle7:50
xG 0.24–0.01 (95%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi2:02
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDesjardins – Kruger – Garbutt9:08
xG 0.35–0.12 (74%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin14:10
xG 0.59–0.55 (52%)attempts 18–6goals 0–2
- Hossa – Toews – Teravainen13:01
xG 0.39–0.59 (40%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Bickell – Shaw – Baun8:07
xG 0.10–0.50 (17%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson20:09
xG 1.01–0.48 (68%)attempts 23–13goals 1–0
- Seabrook – Rundblad18:19
xG 0.39–0.51 (44%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Daley – van Riemsdyk12:56
xG 0.48–1.02 (32%)attempts 11–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).