Wed, Oct 7, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
San Jose Sharks 5, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 214 | 26 | 112 | 532 |
| LAK | 18 | 06 | 06 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:49LAKNicholas ShoreAssists: Dustin Brown, Drew Doughty · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 9:43SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 15:52SJSJoe PavelskiPPGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Patrick Marleau · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 6:07SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 8:14SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Tommy Wingels · Tip-in, 0.22 xG4–1
- P3 3:31SJSJoonas DonskoiAssists: Joe Pavelski, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Deflected, 0.33 xG5–1
Penalties (20)
- P1 1:51LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:51SJSMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:48SJSBarclay Goodrow: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:23LAKMarian Gaborik: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:46LAKNicholas Shore: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P1 19:50LAKChristian Ehrhoff: Interference2 min
- P2 2:00SJSBrenden Dillon: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:00LAKAlec Martinez: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:55SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:57SJSChris Tierney: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 5:11LAKMatt Greene: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:11LAKMatt Greene: Interference2 min
- P3 5:11LAKAndy Andreoff: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:11LAKAndy Andreoff: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:11SJSMike Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:11SJSBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:13LAKChristian Ehrhoff: Interference2 min
- P3 16:00SJSMike Brown: Interference2 min
- P3 16:30SJSLogan Couture: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:41LAKMilan Lucic: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Donskoi8:48
xG 0.76–0.06 (93%)attempts 11–1goals 3–0
- Marleau – Ward – Couture7:34
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Brown – Goodrow – Tierney5:50
xG 0.04–0.07 (38%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Wingels – Nieto – Hertl6:41
xG 0.13–0.24 (34%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns11:59
xG 0.57–0.00 (100%)attempts 18–1goals 2–0
- Vlasic – Braun10:59
xG 0.59–0.15 (80%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Braun – Dillon3:20
xG 0.02–0.01 (65%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Clifford – Nolan – Andreoff3:30
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson6:58
xG 0.06–0.19 (24%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Kopitar – Lucic9:35
xG 0.06–0.42 (12%)attempts 1–11goals 0–2
- Brown – Lewis – Shore6:11
xG 0.14–0.52 (21%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Greene – Martinez9:32
xG 0.15–0.22 (41%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty11:58
xG 0.04–0.39 (10%)attempts 5–12goals 0–2
- Ehrhoff – Schultz10:13
xG 0.10–0.61 (14%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).