Thu, Oct 8, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 013 | 23 | 06 | 03 | 225 |
| TBL | 010 | 213 | 04 | 15 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:25TBLJason GarrisonAssists: Ryan Callahan, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 10:14PHIMatt ReadAssists: Scott Laughton, R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 12:03PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: R.J. Umberger, Evgeny Medvedev · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–1
- P2 18:22TBLRyan CallahanPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- OT 2:17TBLJason GarrisonGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Valtteri Filppula · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:12PHISean Couturier: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:29TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:47TBLOndrej Palat: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 6:30PHINick Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:26TBLAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:38PHIEvgeny Medvedev: Illegal stick2 min · PPG
- P2 19:11TBLValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min
- OT 1:27TBLTyler Johnson: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Raffl12:14
xG 0.26–0.06 (80%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Umberger – Read – Laughton9:27
xG 0.27–0.22 (56%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare9:36
xG 0.08–0.09 (46%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Couturier11:38
xG 0.04–0.53 (7%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Medvedev13:19
xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Streit – Schultz14:27
xG 0.33–0.39 (45%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Manning13:24
xG 0.16–0.38 (30%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Namestnikov – Brown7:19
xG 0.28–0.07 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov12:29
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Callahan – Stamkos – Drouin10:21
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Filppula – Killorn – Stamkos2:11
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Garrison12:50
xG 0.81–0.22 (78%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Carle – Garrison2:47
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Carle – Sustr12:21
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).