Thu, Oct 8, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Minnesota Wild 5, Colorado Avalanche 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 09 | 111 | 410 | 530 |
| COL | 311 | 17 | 05 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:40COLJarome IginlaPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 17:24COLErik JohnsonPPAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Carl Soderberg · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 18:55COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 6:55MINZach PariseAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 8:07COLJohn MitchellAssists: Erik Johnson, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–4
- P3 5:07MINZach PariseAssists: Jason Pominville, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 7:05MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 9:18MINThomas VanekAssists: Mikael Granlund, Charlie Coyle · Snap, 0.04 xG4–4
- P3 10:14MINZach ParisePPGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.03 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:33MINJonas Brodin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:24MINMikko Koivu: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P1 19:39MINJason Zucker: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:39COLBlake Comeau: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:32COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference2 min
- P3 9:37COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Granlund14:35
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 21–11goals 2–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Niederreiter11:05
xG 0.77–0.63 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Vanek – Coyle – Graovac11:46
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Porter – Carter – Haula6:18
xG 0.09–0.16 (38%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon21:22
xG 1.04–0.45 (70%)attempts 30–16goals 0–0
- Scandella – Folin13:55
xG 0.46–0.34 (57%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Brodin – Dumba14:01
xG 0.72–0.83 (46%)attempts 18–13goals 2–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – McLeod – Skille6:15
xG 0.21–0.10 (69%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Iginla – Comeau – Duchene14:44
xG 0.29–0.26 (52%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Tanguay – Landeskog – MacKinnon13:52
xG 0.23–0.60 (28%)attempts 7–21goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Rendulic – Rantanen6:14
xG 0.03–0.56 (5%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Zadorov17:37
xG 0.54–0.25 (69%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Holden – Barrie2:30
xG 0.09–0.13 (40%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Johnson14:42
xG 0.74–1.12 (40%)attempts 15–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).