Sat, Oct 10, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, New York Rangers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 014 | 012 | 213 | 239 |
| NYR | 315 | 17 | 17 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:20NYROscar LindbergAssists: Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 5:12NYROscar LindbergAssists: J.T. Miller, Viktor Stalberg · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 5:48NYRDominic MooreGWGAssists: Jarret Stoll, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 19:12NYRDerick BrassardPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–4
- P3 1:26NYRDerek StepanAssists: Chris Kreider, Viktor Stalberg · Snap, 0.11 xG0–5
- P3 4:35CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Nick Foligno · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–5
- P3 14:08CBJBoone JennerPPAssists: David Savard · Backhand, 0.27 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:19NYRDan Boyle: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:35NYRDominic Moore: Holding2 min
- P1 17:09CBJRyan Murray: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 3:06NYRTanner Glass: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:04CBJBrandon Saad: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:14CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:14NYRViktor Stalberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:14CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:14NYRJarret Stoll: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:08NYRRyan McDonagh: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Saad – Karlsson2:23
xG 1.01–0.18 (85%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Bourque – Jenner6:40
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Foligno – Johansen2:26
xG 0.12–0.12 (49%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Campbell – Boll – Calvert5:26
xG 0.22–0.27 (44%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProut – Connauton13:54
xG 1.65–1.15 (59%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Prout2:38
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Johnson14:57
xG 0.72–0.86 (46%)attempts 15–8goals 1–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Moore – Glass8:00
xG 0.76–0.27 (74%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello9:47
xG 0.38–0.55 (41%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Hayes8:57
xG 0.54–0.89 (38%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Miller8:02
xG 0.15–1.16 (11%)attempts 1–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Staal8:09
xG 0.91–0.07 (93%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Boyle – Yandle6:32
xG 0.77–0.60 (56%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Klein – Yandle9:32
xG 0.39–0.49 (44%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).