Sat, Oct 10, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
New Jersey Devils 3, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 211 | 05 | 19 | 325 |
| WSH | 26 | 011 | 310 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:04WSHJason ChimeraSHAssists: Justin Williams, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 14:32WSHBrooks OrpikAssists: Tom Wilson, Jason Chimera · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 14:54NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 17:40NJDEric GelinasPPAssists: Lee Stempniak, Michael Cammalleri · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 6:33WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 12:44WSHMarcus JohanssonPPGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 17:07WSHMatt NiskanenENAssists: Justin Williams, Dmitry Orlov · Slap, 0.72 xG2–5
- P3 18:39NJDMichael CammalleriUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:24WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:34WSHSean Collins: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:39NJDEric Gelinas: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:01NJDLee Stempniak: Holding2 min
- P3 3:34NJDDavid Schlemko: Holding2 min
- P3 8:33WSHJohn Carlson: Holding2 min
- P3 11:48NJDAdam Henrique: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:22NJDLee Stempniak: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:13NJDKyle Palmieri: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:13WSHBrooks Laich: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Tootoo – Zajac11:40
xG 0.35–0.12 (75%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Tlusty – Henrique – Palmieri10:27
xG 0.25–0.11 (68%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Josefson – O'Neill7:58
xG 0.15–0.11 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Gionta – Matteau – Kalinin8:10
xG 0.03–0.10 (21%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson14:58
xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Gelinas13:13
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Moore – Merrill12:30
xG 0.19–0.37 (34%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Laich – Collins – Latta7:31
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson7:25
xG 0.07–0.08 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Williams – Johansson – Burakovsky10:33
xG 0.16–0.22 (41%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov11:00
xG 0.07–0.22 (25%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Carlson11:56
xG 0.33–0.22 (59%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Orlov – Schmidt8:08
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Schmidt3:15
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).