Sat, Oct 10, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Detroit Red Wings 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 02 | 16 | 311 | 419 |
| CAR | 018 | 216 | 113 | 347 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:33DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Dylan Larkin, Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 15:12CARVictor RaskAssists: Noah Hanifin · Deflected, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 19:03CARNathan GerbeAssists: Ryan Murphy · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 4:39DETTeemu PulkkinenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 6:36DETTeemu PulkkinenAssists: Tomas Tatar · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 16:25DETJustin AbdelkaderGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist · Snap, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 19:57CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Kris Versteeg · Slap, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:37DETTeemu Pulkkinen: Hooking2 min
- P1 2:51DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference2 min
- P1 19:00DETDylan Larkin: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:00CARJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:00DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:39CAREric Staal: Interference2 min
- P2 1:47DETTeemu Pulkkinen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:28DETJohan Franzen: Holding2 min
- P3 19:39DETTeemu Pulkkinen: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Franzen – Sheahan2:29
xG 0.59–0.04 (94%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Tatar – Pulkkinen – Larkin2:30
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 2–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist4:24
xG 0.11–0.06 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Franzen – Sheahan – Pulkkinen6:31
xG 0.02–0.12 (16%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Smith15:15
xG 0.70–0.42 (63%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Quincey – Green13:39
xG 0.59–0.74 (44%)attempts 13–16goals 3–1
- Kronwall – Ericsson15:18
xG 0.53–1.10 (32%)attempts 9–21goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Rask – Lindholm13:00
xG 1.17–0.49 (70%)attempts 25–10goals 1–0
- Versteeg – Gerbe – Staal10:01
xG 0.75–0.60 (55%)attempts 16–6goals 1–2
- Terry – Nestrasil – Skinner2:50
xG 0.12–0.09 (58%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- McClement – Terry – Skinner2:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Jordan13:35
xG 0.46–0.26 (63%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Faulk13:37
xG 0.85–0.68 (55%)attempts 18–10goals 0–3
- Murphy – Hanifin14:25
xG 0.82–0.77 (52%)attempts 19–16goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).