Sat, Oct 10, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 16 | 011 | 128 |
| ARI | 013 | 213 | 013 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:00ARITobias RiederAssists: Anthony Duclair, Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 5:17PITPhil KesselUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 7:29ARIJordan MartinookGWGAssists: Steve Downie, Boyd Gordon · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:56ARIStefan Elliott: Holding2 min
- P1 9:25PITPatric Hornqvist: Interference2 min
- P1 16:48ARIStefan Elliott: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:49PITBeau Bennett: Interference2 min
- P2 8:18PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:41ARISteve Downie: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:41PITPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:58ARISteve Downie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:09ARIMichael Stone: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:18ARIAnthony Duclair: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:18PITBen Lovejoy: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:43PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00ARIShane Doan: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Bennett – Plotnikov2:55
xG 0.56–0.14 (80%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Cullen – Porter – Sprong3:58
xG 0.33–0.25 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Plotnikov3:42
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Bonino – Perron – Bennett4:11
xG 0.07–0.09 (44%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Scuderi – Dumoulin11:35
xG 0.52–0.50 (51%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Letang – Cole10:58
xG 0.40–0.65 (38%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- Lovejoy – Maatta8:55
xG 0.19–0.60 (24%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHanzal – Rieder – Duclair5:18
xG 0.59–0.06 (91%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Gordon – Downie – Martinook4:09
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Doan – Richardson – Chipchura10:07
xG 0.40–0.50 (44%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Vermette – Boedker – Domi10:19
xG 0.19–0.43 (30%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrossmann – Murphy12:31
xG 0.92–0.49 (65%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson9:55
xG 0.50–0.29 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Elliott – Dahlbeck10:56
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).