Tue, Oct 13, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
San Jose Sharks 5, Washington Capitals 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 117 | 210 | 25 | 532 |
| WSH | 08 | 012 | 011 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:54SJSJoe ThorntonPPGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Pavelski · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 2:36SJSMike BrownAssists: Chris Tierney, Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–0
- P2 7:25SJSTomas HertlAssists: Tommy Wingels, Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–0
- P3 18:00SJSMatt NietoENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–0
- P3 19:13SJSChris TierneyENAssists: Barclay Goodrow · Backhand, 0.64 xG5–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:34WSHJay Beagle: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:41WSHBrooks Orpik: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:55WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:56SJSBrent Burns: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:35SJSBrent Burns: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:31WSHStanislav Galiev: Holding2 min
- P3 5:33WSHJason Chimera: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:34SJSBarclay Goodrow: Holding2 min
- P3 10:39SJSBrent Burns: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Ward – Couture9:48
xG 1.12–0.18 (86%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Brown – Goodrow – Tierney7:40
xG 0.57–0.07 (89%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Donskoi8:46
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Wingels – Nieto – Hertl8:07
xG 0.41–0.34 (54%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun12:54
xG 1.26–0.24 (84%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Dillon – Tennyson8:42
xG 0.80–0.34 (70%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Martin – Burns12:54
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Collins – Latta – Galiev6:20
xG 0.03–0.10 (20%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Williams – Laich – Johansson6:03
xG 0.28–0.47 (37%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson5:16
xG 0.31–0.52 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky10:24
xG 0.21–0.80 (21%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Orlov – Schmidt9:42
xG 0.19–0.66 (22%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Alzner12:22
xG 0.43–0.94 (32%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- Orpik – Carlson12:01
xG 0.31–0.96 (24%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).