Wed, Oct 14, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Arizona Coyotes 4, Anaheim Ducks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 310 | 17 | 012 | 429 |
| ANA | 011 | 015 | 011 | 037 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:16ARIAnthony DuclairGWGAssists: Martin Hanzal · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 9:55ARIAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Max Domi, Martin Hanzal · Tip-in, 0.35 xG2–0
- P1 12:53ARIMax DomiAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Zbynek Michalek · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 10:57ARIAnthony DuclairAssists: Tobias Rieder, Martin Hanzal · Snap, 0.06 xG4–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:26ANACarl Hagelin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 10:04ARIZbynek Michalek: Interference2 min
- P1 17:26ANACam Fowler: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:26ARIBrad Richardson: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:26ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:02ARIConnor Murphy: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:45ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:08ANAAndrew Cogliano: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:29ARIMartin Hanzal: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:30ANARickard Rakell: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:08ANAKevin Bieksa: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHanzal – Rieder – Duclair9:19
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Vermette – Boedker – Domi8:41
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Gordon – Downie – Martinook9:04
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Doan – Richardson – Chipchura8:55
xG 0.16–0.24 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Dahlbeck13:20
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson13:20
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Grossmann – Murphy14:04
xG 0.48–0.67 (42%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Maroon6:09
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kesler – Hagelin – Silfverberg7:12
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Sekac3:48
xG 0.06–0.06 (48%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Santorelli2:33
xG 0.01–0.13 (9%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDespres – Vatanen7:23
xG 0.41–0.23 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Bieksa – Lindholm14:03
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Despres – Manson3:02
xG 0.06–0.07 (45%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).