Fri, Oct 16, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 113 | 213 | 210 | 536 |
| DET | 05 | 211 | 14 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:55CARBrock McGinnAssists: Kris Versteeg · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 3:07CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Eric Staal, Kris Versteeg · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 6:15CAREric StaalAssists: Ron Hainsey, Brock McGinn · Snap, 0.39 xG3–0
- P2 14:02DETGustav NyquistAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 15:14DETRiley SheahanAssists: Tomas Tatar, Brad Richards · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 6:25CARKris VersteegGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.23 xG4–2
- P3 13:06CARChris TerryAssists: Brad Malone, Jay McClement · Backhand, 0.07 xG5–2
- P3 13:52DETTeemu PulkkinenAssists: Dylan Larkin · Deflected, 0.08 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:30CARElias Lindholm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:31DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:42DETTeemu Pulkkinen: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:48DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:03CARNoah Hanifin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Versteeg – McGinn10:03
xG 0.97–0.36 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 2–1
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm7:38
xG 0.60–0.17 (78%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- McClement – Terry – Malone6:11
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Gerbe – Staal – Nestrasil11:21
xG 0.43–0.16 (72%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Jordan14:30
xG 0.74–0.11 (87%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Faulk17:44
xG 1.10–0.60 (65%)attempts 15–15goals 2–0
- Murphy – Hanifin13:02
xG 0.49–0.37 (57%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Pulkkinen – Jurco – Larkin5:18
xG 0.08–0.13 (38%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Richards – Tatar – Jurco3:46
xG 0.04–0.20 (18%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Richards – Tatar – Sheahan6:27
xG 0.17–0.37 (32%)attempts 2–5goals 1–1
- Miller – Ferraro – Glendening8:58
xG 0.49–0.73 (40%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kronwall – Kindl2:34
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Quincey2:25
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson10:10
xG 0.58–0.75 (43%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).