Sat, Oct 17, 2015·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
San Jose Sharks 3, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 110 | 28 | 07 | 325 |
| NYI | 010 | 312 | 312 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:04SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Justin Braun, Joe Thornton · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 0:21NYIJohnny BoychukAssists: Ryan Strome, John Tavares · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 0:41SJSNikolay GoldobinAssists: Joe Thornton, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 2:27NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Ryan Strome, John Tavares · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 9:20SJSJoel WardAssists: Matt Nieto, Alex Stalock · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 13:58NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Frans Nielsen, Kyle Okposo · Tip-in, 0.21 xG3–3
- P3 4:18NYIKyle OkposoGWGAssists: Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–4
- P3 11:10NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolay Kulemin · Snap, 0.10 xG3–5
- P3 17:02NYIFrans NielsenENAssists: Kyle Okposo, Calvin de Haan · Backhand, 0.75 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:16SJSTomas Hertl: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:10NYIJohn Tavares: Delaying game bench2 min
- P1 17:47SJSBrenden Dillon: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 1:20SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:50NYITravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:49SJSJustin Braun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Pavelski3:15
xG 0.39–0.26 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Thornton – Pavelski – Goldobin11:59
xG 0.71–0.60 (54%)attempts 15–8goals 2–1
- Marleau – Ward – Hertl10:09
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Wingels – Nieto – Tierney8:30
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- DeMelo – Tennyson9:55
xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun13:45
xG 0.57–0.62 (48%)attempts 15–12goals 2–1
- Burns – Dillon20:54
xG 1.21–1.28 (49%)attempts 25–16goals 1–3
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Bailey10:25
xG 1.07–0.43 (72%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Nelson12:39
xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Tavares – Lee – Strome12:29
xG 0.57–0.39 (59%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:04
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Hickey13:01
xG 0.57–0.12 (83%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Hamonic – de Haan18:51
xG 1.17–0.74 (61%)attempts 10–16goals 3–1
- Boychuk – Leddy15:15
xG 0.73–0.67 (52%)attempts 21–18goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).