Sat, Oct 17, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Boston Bruins 5, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 014 | 219 | 310 | 543 |
| ARI | 17 | 04 | 213 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:12ARIShane DoanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 8:42BOSTyler RandellAssists: David Krejci, Torey Krug · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 15:19BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Torey Krug, Loui Eriksson · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 4:44BOSBrad MarchandSHAssists: Tommy Cross, Patrice Bergeron · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 4:57ARITobias RiederPPAssists: Shane Doan, Michael Stone · Backhand, 0.28 xG3–2
- P3 7:21ARIKyle ChipchuraAssists: Shane Doan, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–3
- P3 9:10BOSPatrice BergeronPPGWGAssists: Ryan Spooner, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 18:54BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Zdeno Chara, Kevan Miller · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:16ARIMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:51BOSZdeno Chara: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:17BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:35BOSKevan Miller: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:35ARIJoe Vitale: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:35ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:01ARIBrad Richardson: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 15:36BOSColin Miller: Holding2 min
- P2 17:03ARIShane Doan: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:15BOSAdam McQuaid: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:15ARIMartin Hanzal: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:09ARIKyle Chipchura: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Bergeron – Marchand10:59
xG 0.99–0.16 (86%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Randell – Kemppainen3:29
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kelly – Hayes – Spooner5:43
xG 0.15–0.22 (40%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Krejci – Beleskey – Pastrnak10:36
xG 0.22–0.36 (38%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Cross4:10
xG 0.47–0.07 (87%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug2:33
xG 0.14–0.02 (90%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Chara – McQuaid2:11
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Richardson – Vitale4:08
xG 0.34–0.03 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Richardson – Boedker – Domi3:51
xG 0.06–0.04 (57%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Rieder – Duclair9:58
xG 0.24–0.24 (51%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Gordon – Chipchura – Downie3:57
xG 0.02–0.05 (33%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Ekman-Larsson6:16
xG 0.54–0.07 (88%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Michalek – Dahlbeck2:01
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson10:16
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).