Mon, Oct 19, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
San Jose Sharks 0, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 09 | 04 | 09 | 022 |
| NYR | 113 | 110 | 25 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:36NYRMarc StaalGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Jesper Fast · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 9:28NYRMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Rick Nash, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 3:47NYRJesper FastAssists: Chris Kreider, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 16:44NYRViktor StalbergAssists: Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 1:29NYRDan Boyle: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:08NYRMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:02SJSDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWingels – Goodrow – Tierney5:27
xG 0.62–0.10 (86%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Wingels – Nieto – Tierney4:04
xG 0.43–0.05 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Brown – Lerg – Goldobin4:10
xG 0.16–0.08 (68%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Marleau – Ward – Hertl14:01
xG 0.84–0.79 (51%)attempts 15–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Dillon19:16
xG 1.29–0.89 (59%)attempts 20–18goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Tennyson11:09
xG 0.45–0.05 (89%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Braun19:44
xG 0.53–0.54 (50%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Stepan – Zuccarello12:59
xG 0.46–0.09 (84%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Brassard – Kreider – Fast12:22
xG 0.81–0.86 (49%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Lindberg – Hayes – Miller11:04
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Stoll – Moore – Stalberg9:10
xG 0.27–0.90 (23%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – McDonagh16:35
xG 0.61–0.23 (72%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Boyle – Staal16:02
xG 0.60–0.50 (55%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Yandle – Girardi18:47
xG 0.43–1.26 (25%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).