Wed, Oct 21, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Boston Bruins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 215 | 010 | 211 | 11 | 537 |
| BOS | 212 | 211 | 06 | 01 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:28PHIPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Chris VandeVelde, Ryan White · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 13:28BOSBrett ConnollyAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 15:04PHISam GagnerAssists: Scott Laughton, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P1 17:24BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Loui Eriksson, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 4:31BOSChris KellySHAssists: Loui Eriksson, Zdeno Chara · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–3
- P2 8:49BOSJimmy HayesAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 7:48PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jakub Voracek, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 10:24PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: R.J. Umberger, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–4
- OT 2:09PHIClaude GirouxPPGWGAssists: Mark Streit, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.09 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:38PHIClaude Giroux: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 0:00PHIClaude Giroux: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 0:00BOSZac Rinaldo: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 0:00BOSZac Rinaldo: Charging5 min
- P1 0:00BOSZdeno Chara: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:39PHIWayne Simmonds: Hooking2 min
- OT 1:36BOSRyan Spooner: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVandeVelde – White – Bellemare8:10
xG 0.60–0.18 (77%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Umberger – Gagner – Laughton5:25
xG 0.36–0.10 (78%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl10:59
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Giroux – Simmonds – Raffl2:06
xG 0.18–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Medvedev12:03
xG 0.74–0.17 (81%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Streit – Schultz13:44
xG 0.53–0.18 (74%)attempts 10–8goals 2–1
- Del Zotto – Gudas16:36
xG 0.64–0.45 (59%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Krejci – Pastrnak10:52
xG 0.38–0.27 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Randell – Kemppainen2:09
xG 0.09–0.06 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kelly – Hayes – Spooner9:13
xG 0.04–0.38 (10%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
- Rinaldo – Randell – Kemppainen2:13
xG 0.07–0.41 (14%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- McQuaid – Krug9:29
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug5:41
xG 0.17–0.21 (44%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Chara – Miller10:09
xG 0.27–0.34 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).