Fri, Oct 23, 2015·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Boston Bruins 5, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 18 | 211 | 27 | 526 |
| NYI | 218 | 05 | 13 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:51BOSBrett ConnollyAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 14:08NYIJosh BaileyPPAssists: John Tavares, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–1
- P1 15:27NYICasey CizikasAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Matt Martin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 16:13BOSJoonas KemppainenAssists: Ryan Spooner · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 18:16BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–2
- P3 8:09BOSRyan SpoonerGWGAssists: Joonas Kemppainen · Backhand, 0.19 xG4–2
- P3 17:35BOSDavid KrejciENAssists: Loui Eriksson, Adam McQuaid · Wrist, 0.71 xG5–2
- P3 18:07NYIThomas HickeyUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:50BOSBrad Marchand: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:27NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:27BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:45BOSColin Miller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:47NYICal Clutterbuck: Boarding2 min
- P3 12:28NYIJohnny Boychuk: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:27NYIJohn Tavares: Bench2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Krejci – Pastrnak10:59
xG 0.52–0.15 (78%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Connolly12:09
xG 0.58–0.22 (72%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Randell – Spooner – Kemppainen2:17
xG 0.34–0.05 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 2–0
- Kelly – Hayes – Rinaldo5:24
xG 0.08–0.01 (88%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug7:34
xG 0.53–0.20 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Chara – Miller6:54
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Morrow7:41
xG 0.48–0.31 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 1–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Bailey12:19
xG 0.46–0.08 (85%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:00
xG 0.41–0.37 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 2–2
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Nelson10:36
xG 0.07–0.33 (17%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Tavares – Lee – Strome13:35
xG 0.25–1.08 (19%)attempts 9–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Zidlicky – Hickey11:49
xG 0.54–0.68 (44%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Boychuk – Leddy19:22
xG 0.43–0.58 (43%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
- Hamonic – de Haan17:10
xG 0.17–0.75 (18%)attempts 10–21goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).