Fri, Oct 23, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Detroit Red Wings 2, Calgary Flames 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 213 | 04 | 09 | 03 | 229 |
| CGY | 18 | 016 | 113 | 13 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:38DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Mike Green · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 11:02CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 12:40DETBrendan SmithPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Teemu Pulkkinen · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 18:48CGYJoe ColborneAssists: Mark Giordano, Jiri Hudler · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 3:12CGYMark GiordanoGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:57CGYDeryk Engelland: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 11:10CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 17:27CGYJiri Hudler: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:27DETLandon Ferraro: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:31CGYMicheal Ferland: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:31DETJonathan Ericsson: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00CGYJoe Colborne: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:21DETKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
- P2 17:47DETKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
- P3 3:21CGYSean Monahan: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:56DETTeemu Pulkkinen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Pulkkinen – Larkin9:38
xG 0.73–0.12 (86%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Ferraro7:50
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Helm – Sheahan – Glendening11:48
xG 0.11–0.33 (25%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist11:32
xG 0.06–1.17 (5%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green3:34
xG 0.31–0.03 (91%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Kronwall – DeKeyser2:01
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Smith – DeKeyser2:03
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Monahan14:51
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Ferland3:05
xG 0.20–0.04 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Raymond – Frolik – Backlund2:47
xG 0.11–0.09 (57%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Jones – Colborne – Bennett3:43
xG 0.05–0.25 (18%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Giordano18:58
xG 1.16–0.27 (81%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Russell – Hamilton6:34
xG 0.42–0.06 (87%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Smid – Hamilton7:51
xG 0.22–0.14 (60%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).