Sat, Oct 24, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Detroit Red Wings 3, Vancouver Canucks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 04 | 212 | 15 | 328 |
| VAN | 110 | 113 | 07 | 02 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:03VANChris TanevPPAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 8:02VANBrandon SutterPPAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 4:25DETTeemu PulkkinenAssists: Tomas Tatar, Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 6:59DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 3:50DETGustav NyquistGWGAssists: Petr Mrazek · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:43VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
- P1 11:32DETGustav Nyquist: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:31VANDan Hamhuis: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:54DETRiley Sheahan: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:35DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:50VANJared McCann: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:05VANYannick Weber: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:30DETJakub Kindl: Interference2 min
- P3 10:56VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
- OT 0:13VANDaniel Sedin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Tatar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist13:16
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Helm – Sheahan – Glendening8:46
xG 0.10–0.18 (37%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Ferraro5:13
xG 0.05–0.33 (14%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Tatar – Pulkkinen – Larkin9:28
xG 0.29–0.65 (31%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Smith10:36
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Marchenko – DeKeyser12:23
xG 0.41–0.49 (46%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson14:29
xG 0.26–0.72 (27%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Vrbata14:37
xG 0.68–0.36 (65%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Baertschi – Horvat – Virtanen4:24
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Burrows – Hansen – Sutter8:32
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Prust – Dorsett – McCann9:31
xG 0.13–0.27 (32%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev18:17
xG 0.73–0.29 (72%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Weber11:21
xG 0.41–0.22 (64%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Hutton11:16
xG 0.37–0.44 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).