Mon, Oct 26, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Arizona Coyotes 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 28 | 111 | 15 | 424 |
| TOR | 18 | 05 | 214 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:31ARIMax DomiPPAssists: Michael Stone, Martin Hanzal · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 13:08TORShawn MatthiasAssists: Brad Boyes · Snap, 0.47 xG1–1
- P1 14:59ARIShane DoanPPAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–1
- P2 7:38ARIKlas DahlbeckAssists: Kyle Chipchura, Steve Downie · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 7:00ARIKyle ChipchuraGWGAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Mikkel Boedker · Snap, 0.40 xG4–1
- P3 9:05TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Nazem Kadri · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 17:34TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:23TORScott Harrington: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:45TORNazem Kadri: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 13:58TORJames van Riemsdyk: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:44ARISteve Downie: Interference2 min
- P3 2:52TORNazem Kadri: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:35ARIBoyd Gordon: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:35TORJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:24ARIBrad Richardson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chipchura won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestChipchura – Boedker – Domi10:17
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Rieder – Duclair – Gaudet5:35
xG 0.12–0.03 (81%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Rieder – Duclair3:06
xG 0.07–0.03 (71%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Doan – Richardson – Martinook10:34
xG 0.34–0.35 (49%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Ekman-Larsson16:12
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Grossmann – Murphy11:52
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Michalek – Grossmann4:21
xG 0.03–0.13 (18%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Matthias – Arcobello5:41
xG 0.90–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Lupul – Winnik – Arcobello2:35
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Matthias – Froese2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Grabner – Holland6:45
xG 0.09–0.22 (30%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Marincin10:11
xG 1.10–0.19 (85%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Harrington – Rielly15:48
xG 0.28–0.40 (42%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Hunwick13:29
xG 0.21–0.51 (29%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).