Wed, Oct 28, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Calgary Flames 4, Ottawa Senators 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 110 | 316 | 02 | 1 | 438 |
| OTT | 04 | 26 | 212 | 01 | 2 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:15CGYDougie HamiltonAssists: Jiri Hudler, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 17:58OTTZack SmithUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 19:46OTTBobby RyanAssists: Kyle Turris, Marc Methot · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 4:23CGYJoe ColborneAssists: Sean Monahan, Jiri Hudler · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 5:20CGYKris RussellAssists: Sam Bennett, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 9:50OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 10:08OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Milan Michalek, Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–4
- P3 12:32CGYSam BennettPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.44 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
- 2. CGY Joe Colborne scored
- 3. OTT Kyle Turris scored
- 4. CGY Johnny Gaudreau stopped
- 5. OTT Mika Zibanejad scored
- 6. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:37CGYJosh Jooris: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:39OTTErik Karlsson: Interference2 min
- P2 1:42CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:30OTTChris Neil: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:44OTTMarc Methot: Interference2 min
- P3 6:12CGYBrandon Bollig: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:20OTTBobby Ryan: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 14:13CGYDennis Wideman: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Gaudreau – Bennett11:44
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Stajan – Bollig – Jooris5:35
xG 0.36–0.07 (83%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Jones – Raymond – Backlund8:46
xG 0.24–0.04 (86%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Hudler – Colborne – Monahan12:54
xG 0.55–0.56 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Hamilton9:13
xG 0.83–0.09 (90%)attempts 23–7goals 1–0
- Giordano – Brodie16:42
xG 0.30–0.57 (35%)attempts 12–14goals 1–2
- Wideman – Russell15:11
xG 0.27–0.68 (28%)attempts 11–12goals 1–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Turris – Stone2:46
xG 0.31–0.06 (83%)attempts 6–1goals 2–1
- Michalek – Chiasson – Pageau12:52
xG 0.60–0.70 (46%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Turris – Stone – Prince8:45
xG 0.23–0.36 (38%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Ryan – Zibanejad – Puempel7:53
xG 0.08–0.25 (25%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson17:02
xG 1.02–0.52 (66%)attempts 19–14goals 4–1
- Karlsson – Cowen2:47
xG 0.06–0.16 (29%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Ceci11:33
xG 0.12–0.34 (26%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).