Thu, Oct 29, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Sabres 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 211 | 018 | 124 | 353 |
| PIT | 211 | 214 | 04 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:56PITPascal DupuisAssists: Sidney Crosby, Ben Lovejoy · Backhand, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 7:16PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Sidney Crosby, Olli Maatta · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 14:25BUFJamie McGinnAssists: Tim Schaller, Rasmus Ristolainen · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 16:40BUFNicolas DeslauriersAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 8:18PITBen LovejoyAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 14:57PITEvgeni MalkinPPGWGAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–4
- P3 17:34BUFMatt MoulsonAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, David Legwand · Tip-in, 0.29 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 6:06PITBen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:08BUFMike Weber: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:09PITKris Letang: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – McGinn – Schaller6:25
xG 0.69–0.20 (78%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- O'Reilly – Foligno – Deslauriers11:41
xG 0.49–0.31 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Gionta – Moulson – Girgensons12:59
xG 0.40–0.25 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Larsson – Reinhart – Eichel11:02
xG 0.31–0.19 (61%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – McCabe15:49
xG 0.93–0.54 (63%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
- Weber – Pysyk14:24
xG 0.60–0.35 (64%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen19:42
xG 0.78–0.62 (56%)attempts 23–12goals 2–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Crosby – Hornqvist12:56
xG 0.83–0.29 (74%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Cullen – Porter – Bennett3:17
xG 0.12–0.16 (42%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Cullen – Porter – Sprong4:09
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Perron12:56
xG 0.34–0.53 (39%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Scuderi – Maatta17:35
xG 0.58–0.57 (50%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
- Letang – Cole19:46
xG 0.48–0.87 (36%)attempts 14–23goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Dumoulin14:55
xG 0.48–0.90 (35%)attempts 13–22goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).