Fri, Oct 30, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 07 | 114 | 128 |
| BUF | 115 | 116 | 15 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:24BUFJack EichelAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 4:20BUFRyan O'ReillyPPGWGAssists: Brian Gionta, Cody Franson · Deflected, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 3:12BUFNicolas DeslauriersAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Marcus Foligno · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 16:34PHIMark StreitAssists: R.J. Umberger, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
Penalties (18)
- P1 5:25PHIRadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P1 17:12BUFRyan O'Reilly: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:12PHIClaude Giroux: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:40BUFSam Reinhart: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 4:12PHIVincent Lecavalier: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:20BUFMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:20PHILuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:23PHIRyan White: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:17PHIMichael Del Zotto: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:02PHIMichael Del Zotto: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:02BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Charging2 min
- P3 8:43BUFJake McCabe: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:43PHIMichael Raffl: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:52PHIEvgeny Medvedev: Holding2 min
- P3 13:12BUFMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:17BUFJosh Gorges: Boarding5 min
- P3 19:17PHIWayne Simmonds: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:17BUFJosh Gorges: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Read3:22
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – White5:43
xG 0.09–0.04 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Voracek – Schenn – Laughton5:23
xG 0.07–0.03 (67%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Umberger – Gagner – Raffl6:04
xG 0.18–0.34 (34%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Del Zotto11:30
xG 0.35–0.21 (62%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Schultz – Schenn9:36
xG 0.03–0.24 (10%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Gudas – Medvedev10:28
xG 0.20–0.67 (23%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – O'Reilly – Girgensons2:07
xG 0.14–0.02 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gionta – Moulson – Girgensons4:35
xG 0.08–0.02 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Legwand – McGinn – Schaller2:49
xG 0.02–0.09 (19%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Larsson – Reinhart – Eichel5:16
xG 0.03–0.21 (13%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – McCabe11:53
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Colaiacovo – Pysyk11:37
xG 0.59–0.70 (46%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen12:27
xG 0.22–0.34 (40%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).