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Ice Lab

Fri, Oct 30, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo

Philadelphia Flyers 1, Buffalo Sabres 3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 73% of the time.

BUF winsPHI wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:08Shot by Larsson, saved by Neuvirth
  3. P1 2:51Shot by Gorges, saved by Neuvirth
  4. P1 3:35Shot by Laughton, saved by Ullmark
  5. P1 3:44Shot by Gudas, saved by Ullmark
  6. P1 4:00Shot by Schenn, saved by Ullmark
  7. P1 4:08Shot by Larsson, saved by Neuvirth
  8. P1 5:25Gudas: Interference (2 min)6v5

    On ice: BUF Legwand, Colaiacovo, McGinn, Pysyk, Schaller, Eichel · PHI Schultz, Umberger, Gagner, Gudas, Raffl

  9. P1 5:51Shot by Franson, saved by Neuvirth5v4
  10. P1 7:09Shot by Larsson, saved by Neuvirth5v4
  11. P1 7:21Shot by Ristolainen, saved by Neuvirth5v4
  12. P1 7:10Shot by McGinn, saved by Neuvirth5v4
  13. P1 8:20Shot by Gagner, saved by Ullmark
  14. P1 9:17Shot by VandeVelde, saved by Ullmark
  15. P1 9:30Shot by Gionta, saved by Neuvirth
  16. P1 10:57Shot by Deslauriers, saved by Neuvirth
  17. P1 11:18Shot by Read, saved by Ullmark
  18. P1 11:55Shot by Medvedev, saved by Ullmark
  19. P1 16:08Shot by Moulson, saved by Neuvirth
  20. P1 17:12O'Reilly: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Gionta, Gorges, O'Reilly, Girgensons, Ristolainen · PHI Giroux, Simmonds, Gudas, Read, Medvedev

  21. P1 17:12Giroux: Roughing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: BUF Gionta, Gorges, O'Reilly, Girgensons, Ristolainen · PHI Giroux, Simmonds, Gudas, Read, Medvedev

  22. P1 17:18Shot by Larsson, saved by Neuvirth4v4
  23. P1 17:58Shot by Eichel, saved by Neuvirth4v4
  24. P1 18:00Shot by Colaiacovo, saved by Neuvirth4v4
  25. P1 18:23Shot by Girgensons, saved by Neuvirth4v4
  26. P1 19:24Goal by Eichel (O'Reilly, Larsson)+19 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Franson, O'Reilly, Larsson, McCabe, Eichel · PHI Giroux, Simmonds, Gudas, Read, Medvedev

  27. P1 0:00Period end
  28. P2 0:00Period start
  29. P2 1:40Reinhart: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Gorges, Larsson, Ristolainen, Reinhart, Eichel · PHI Lecavalier, Schenn, Gudas, Laughton, Medvedev

  30. P2 2:32Shot by Gagner, saved by Ullmark4v5
  31. P2 4:12Lecavalier: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Colaiacovo, Foligno, Deslauriers, Pysyk, Schaller · PHI Lecavalier, Schultz, VandeVelde, White, Schenn

  32. P2 4:20Goal by O'Reilly (Gionta, Franson)5v4+15 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Gionta, Moulson, Franson, O'Reilly, Girgensons · PHI Schultz, VandeVelde, White, Gudas

  33. P2 4:36Shot by Schenn, saved by Ullmark
  34. P2 5:47Shot by Legwand, saved by Neuvirth
  35. P2 5:54Shot by Legwand, saved by Neuvirth
  36. P2 6:59Shot by Umberger, saved by Ullmark
  37. P2 8:12Shot by Schenn, saved by Ullmark
  38. P2 9:20Foligno: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: BUF Gorges, Foligno, Deslauriers, Schaller, Ristolainen · PHI Schultz, Giroux, Simmonds, Schenn, Read

  39. P2 9:20Schenn: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: BUF Gorges, Foligno, Deslauriers, Schaller, Ristolainen · PHI Schultz, Giroux, Simmonds, Schenn, Read

  40. P2 9:35Shot by McGinn, saved by Neuvirth
  41. P2 9:47Shot by O'Reilly, saved by Neuvirth
  42. P2 10:05Shot by Eichel, saved by Neuvirth
  43. P2 10:51Shot by Legwand, saved by Neuvirth
  44. P2 11:23White: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Gionta, Moulson, Franson, McCabe, Eichel · PHI Lecavalier, VandeVelde, White, Gudas, Medvedev

  45. P2 12:17Shot by Eichel, saved by Neuvirth6v4
  46. P2 12:17Del Zotto: High sticking (2 min)6v4

    On ice: BUF Gionta, Moulson, Franson, O'Reilly, Girgensons, Eichel · PHI Schultz, Giroux, Del Zotto, Laughton

  47. P2 12:47Shot by Franson, saved by Neuvirth5v3
  48. P2 13:09Shot by Gionta, saved by Neuvirth5v3
  49. P2 13:24Shot by O'Reilly, saved by Neuvirth5v4
  50. P2 14:21Shot by Larsson, saved by Neuvirth
  51. P2 16:02Del Zotto: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Gionta, Gorges, O'Reilly, Deslauriers, Ristolainen · PHI Streit, Giroux, Voracek, Del Zotto, Read

  52. P2 16:36Shot by Eichel, saved by Neuvirth5v4
  53. P2 16:53Shot by Ristolainen, saved by Neuvirth5v4
  54. P2 17:31Shot by Girgensons, saved by Neuvirth5v4
  55. P2 19:01Shot by Medvedev, saved by Ullmark
  56. P2 19:03Shot by Voracek, saved by Ullmark
  57. P2 19:27Shot by Deslauriers, saved by Neuvirth
  58. P2 19:52Shot by Simmonds, saved by Ullmark
  59. P2 0:00Period end
  60. P3 0:00Period start
  61. P3 1:02Deslauriers: Charging (2 min)5v6

    On ice: BUF Gionta, Moulson, Franson, Girgensons, McCabe · PHI Schultz, White, Gagner, Voracek, Simmonds, Schenn

  62. P3 1:51Shot by Voracek, saved by Ullmark4v5
  63. P3 2:05Shot by Del Zotto, saved by Ullmark4v5
  64. P3 3:12Goal by Deslauriers (O'Reilly, Foligno)+4 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Franson, O'Reilly, Foligno, Deslauriers, McCabe · PHI White, Voracek, Simmonds, Schenn, Schenn

  65. P3 3:58Shot by McCabe, saved by Neuvirth
  66. P3 4:34Shot by Laughton, saved by Ullmark
  67. P3 6:44Shot by Lecavalier, saved by Ullmark
  68. P3 6:56Shot by Voracek, saved by Ullmark
  69. P3 8:43McCabe: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Gionta, Moulson, Franson, Girgensons, McCabe · PHI Schultz, Gagner, Voracek, Schenn, Raffl

  70. P3 8:43Raffl: Cross checking (2 min)4v5

    On ice: BUF Gionta, Moulson, Franson, Girgensons, McCabe · PHI Schultz, Gagner, Voracek, Schenn, Raffl

  71. P3 9:35Shot by Voracek, saved by Ullmark4v4
  72. P3 10:44Shot by Gionta, saved by Neuvirth
  73. P3 10:52Medvedev: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Gionta, Gorges, Girgensons, Schaller, Ristolainen · PHI Simmonds, Gudas, Laughton, Raffl, Medvedev

  74. P3 12:18Shot by Colaiacovo, saved by Neuvirth5v4
  75. P3 12:34Shot by Eichel, saved by Neuvirth5v4
  76. P3 13:12Foligno: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Gorges, Foligno, Deslauriers, Pysyk, Eichel · PHI Streit, Schultz, Umberger, Giroux, Voracek

  77. P3 14:18Shot by Streit, saved by Ullmark4v5
  78. P3 15:23Shot by VandeVelde, saved by Ullmark
  79. P3 16:34Goal by Streit (Umberger, Gagner)+1 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Moulson, Pysyk, McCabe, Schaller, Reinhart · PHI Streit, Umberger, Gagner, Gudas, Raffl

  80. P3 16:44Shot by Schenn, saved by Ullmark
  81. P3 17:59Shot by Medvedev, saved by Ullmark5v6
  82. P3 18:46Shot by White, saved by Ullmark5v6
  83. P3 18:52Shot by Del Zotto, saved by Ullmark5v6
  84. P3 19:17Gorges: Boarding (5 min)5v6

    On ice: BUF Gorges, O'Reilly, Deslauriers, Girgensons, Ristolainen · PHI Streit, Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds, Del Zotto, Read

  85. P3 19:17Simmonds: Misconduct (10 min)4v6

    On ice: BUF Gorges, O'Reilly, Deslauriers, Girgensons, Ristolainen · PHI Streit, Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds, Del Zotto, Read

  86. P3 19:17Gorges: Game misconduct (10 min)4v5

    On ice: BUF Gorges, O'Reilly, Deslauriers, Girgensons, Ristolainen · PHI Streit, Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds, Del Zotto, Read

  87. P3 19:30Shot by Streit, saved by Ullmark4v6
  88. P3 0:00Period end
  89. P3 0:00Final