Fri, Oct 30, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Montréal Canadiens 6, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 113 | 37 | 211 | 631 |
| CGY | 015 | 211 | 06 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:20MTLDale WeiseAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, David Desharnais · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 0:27CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 2:32MTLNathan BeaulieuPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 4:41CGYJosh JoorisAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–2
- P2 6:57MTLDale WeiseGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 12:22MTLDevante Smith-PellyAssists: Paul Byron, Torrey Mitchell · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 3:52MTLPaul ByronSHAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.32 xG5–2
- P3 11:44MTLDale WeiseAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.13 xG6–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:22MTLMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:00CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:57CGYJoe Colborne: Holding2 min
- P2 14:49MTLTorrey Mitchell: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:46CGYJosh Jooris: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:07MTLLars Eller: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:41CGYMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:41MTLNathan Beaulieu: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Desharnais – Weise9:10
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 12–8goals 3–0
- Mitchell – Byron – Smith-Pelly9:15
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher11:56
xG 0.31–0.52 (37%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
- Eller – Flynn – Galchenyuk6:54
xG 0.12–0.63 (16%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Beaulieu13:32
xG 0.65–0.40 (62%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Markov – Subban12:52
xG 0.35–0.52 (40%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Emelin – Petry13:31
xG 0.35–0.86 (29%)attempts 11–18goals 1–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Jooris – Bennett6:30
xG 0.53–0.09 (85%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Stajan – Jones – Grant3:57
xG 0.23–0.02 (91%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Frolik – Gaudreau – Bennett5:34
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Raymond – Frolik – Backlund3:55
xG 0.15–0.08 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie14:48
xG 1.09–0.55 (67%)attempts 25–11goals 2–1
- Engelland – Wideman2:50
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Engelland – Hamilton10:48
xG 0.40–0.46 (46%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).