Sat, Oct 31, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Detroit Red Wings 5, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 212 | 27 | 528 |
| OTT | 013 | 17 | 216 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:55DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 5:29DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Tomas Tatar · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 13:36OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 18:05DETJonathan EricssonAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Darren Helm · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 0:39DETDylan LarkinGWGAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Luke Glendening · Wrap-around, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 5:35DETDanny DeKeyserAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 15:51OTTMark StoneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 18:51OTTBobby RyanAssists: Shane Prince, Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.24 xG5–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:03DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P1 11:10OTTCody Ceci: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:10DETBrendan Smith: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:22DETGustav Nyquist: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:53OTTChris Neil: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 11:08OTTMark Stone: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 9:54DETJonathan Ericsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:54OTTAlex Chiasson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:35OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:35DETJonathan Ericsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:35OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:35DETJonathan Ericsson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:35OTTChris Neil: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin12:24
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan7:37
xG 0.14–0.27 (35%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Helm – Andersson – Pulkkinen6:43
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Miller – Ferraro – Glendening10:03
xG 0.08–0.46 (14%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Smith11:05
xG 0.89–0.31 (74%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Smith – Marchenko3:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Ericsson – DeKeyser12:58
xG 0.38–0.42 (48%)attempts 8–19goals 2–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Stone – Prince10:35
xG 0.58–0.41 (59%)attempts 22–8goals 2–3
- Neil – Smith – McCormick8:30
xG 0.15–0.05 (75%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Zibanejad – Puempel9:35
xG 0.32–0.60 (35%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Michalek – Chiasson – Pageau8:22
xG 0.04–0.38 (9%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wiercioch2:02
xG 0.24–0.12 (66%)attempts 2–4goals 1–1
- Borowiecki – Cowen10:26
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Wiercioch – Ceci15:25
xG 0.45–0.48 (49%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).