Sun, Nov 1, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
San Jose Sharks 4, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 112 | 113 | 27 | 432 |
| COL | 110 | 17 | 19 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:17COLJarome IginlaPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 7:00SJSJoel WardAssists: Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–1
- P2 12:03SJSBrent BurnsSHAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 12:24COLFrancois BeaucheminPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 18:21SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Patrick Marleau, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 18:40SJSJoe PavelskiENGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.74 xG4–2
- P3 18:55COLCody McLeodAssists: Tyson Barrie, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:43SJSTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:52COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:52SJSMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:57SJSPaul Martin: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:48COLCarl Soderberg: Interference2 min
- P1 12:28SJSChris Tierney: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:02SJSMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:15COLSemyon Varlamov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Ward – Hertl14:04
xG 1.02–0.61 (63%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Donskoi10:53
xG 0.19–0.06 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Lerg – Goodrow5:18
xG 0.10–0.04 (69%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Wingels – Nieto – Tierney8:57
xG 0.08–0.33 (19%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun16:25
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Dillon – Tennyson8:55
xG 0.09–0.13 (42%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Martin – Burns18:24
xG 0.55–0.69 (44%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Duchene – Landeskog14:53
xG 0.81–0.28 (74%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Comeau – McLeod7:37
xG 0.10–0.07 (61%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Skille – Grigorenko – Everberg2:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Comeau – Skille2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Guenin12:42
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie18:46
xG 1.00–1.13 (47%)attempts 17–20goals 1–2
- Beauchemin – Johnson16:38
xG 0.13–0.47 (22%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).