Wed, Nov 4, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 17 | 07 | 29 | 323 |
| VAN | 06 | 07 | 27 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:53PITDavid PerronAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Phil Kessel · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 7:17PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 10:12PITEric FehrSHGWGAssists: Rob Scuderi, Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P3 13:59VANDaniel SedinAssists: Matt Bartkowski, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 18:53VANJannik HansenAssists: Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:28VANBen Hutton: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:31PITSergei Plotnikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:39PITNick Bonino: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:10PITRob Scuderi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:50VANMatt Bartkowski: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:50PITPhil Kessel: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:50VANDerek Dorsett: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:08VANDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:08PITEric Fehr: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:27VANChris Tanev: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:07PITIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:03VANAdam Cracknell: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:03PITDavid Perron: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Perron7:27
xG 0.43–0.11 (79%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Dupuis – Crosby – Hornqvist7:58
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Plotnikov5:15
xG 0.02–0.03 (45%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Bonino – Bennett6:53
xG 0.04–0.08 (32%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Dumoulin12:08
xG 0.38–0.06 (87%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Maatta10:48
xG 0.37–0.17 (69%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Letang – Cole12:27
xG 0.18–0.46 (27%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Sedin – Sedin – Vrbata10:08
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Cracknell – Dorsett – McCann6:40
xG 0.08–0.11 (43%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Burrows – Sutter – Virtanen6:04
xG 0.07–0.17 (28%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Higgins – Hansen – Horvat8:28
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bartkowski13:01
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Weber – Hutton9:34
xG 0.19–0.16 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev11:40
xG 0.27–0.67 (29%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).