Thu, Nov 5, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Colorado Avalanche 2, Arizona Coyotes 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 112 | 19 | 228 |
| ARI | 19 | 213 | 16 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:05ARINicklas GrossmannAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 2:41ARITobias RiederAssists: Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 3:48COLCody McLeodAssists: Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–2
- P2 5:16ARINicklas GrossmannGWGAssists: Martin Hanzal, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 16:14COLMatt DucheneAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 19:46ARIJordan MartinookENAssists: Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.75 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 19:05COLBrandon Gormley: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:47ARIBrad Richardson: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:58COLErik Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:51COLNikita Zadorov: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:10ARIMichael Stone: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:59COLNathan MacKinnon: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:30COLNathan MacKinnon: Interference2 min
- P3 1:35ARIShane Doan: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:15COLCody McLeod: Holding2 min
- P3 5:01ARIAnthony Duclair: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:52ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – Duchene – MacKinnon3:02
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Soderberg – Duchene – Landeskog5:57
xG 0.30–0.03 (91%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- McLeod – Skille – Street4:46
xG 0.39–0.19 (68%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
- Comeau – Grigorenko – Everberg5:34
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Barrie13:23
xG 0.56–0.29 (66%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Johnson8:58
xG 0.38–0.13 (74%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Zadorov2:36
xG 0.05–0.02 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Hanzal – Rieder – Duclair6:07
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Gordon – Chipchura – Downie4:14
xG 0.00–0.05 (2%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Boedker – Domi – Gaudet10:23
xG 0.31–0.52 (37%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Doan – Richardson – Martinook9:32
xG 0.10–0.42 (19%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Dahlbeck9:48
xG 0.24–0.18 (58%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Grossmann – Murphy12:43
xG 0.41–0.67 (38%)attempts 10–15goals 2–1
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson12:17
xG 0.18–0.77 (19%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).