Thu, Nov 5, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Florida Panthers 2, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 111 | 111 | 011 | 233 |
| SJS | 211 | 211 | 110 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:37SJSBrent BurnsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 9:26SJSJoonas DonskoiAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–2
- P1 10:54FLAVincent TrocheckUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 3:46SJSPatrick MarleauGWGAssists: Joel Ward, Tomas Hertl · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 14:06FLABrandon PirriPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 19:00SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Nikolay Goldobin, Tommy Wingels · Snap, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 18:54SJSChris TierneyENAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:48FLAShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:48SJSMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:47FLADmitry Kulikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:26SJSJoonas Donskoi: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:33SJSTommy Wingels: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:56FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:20SJSBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Trocheck11:39
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Wilson7:25
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Jagr – Bjugstad – Huberdeau10:23
xG 0.28–0.82 (25%)attempts 10–14goals 0–3
- Pirri – Howden – Grimaldi10:01
xG 0.25–0.86 (23%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad13:10
xG 0.68–0.51 (57%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Gudbranson14:24
xG 0.31–0.70 (31%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Petrovic12:17
xG 0.31–1.04 (23%)attempts 13–12goals 0–3
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Donskoi13:03
xG 1.36–0.27 (83%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Marleau – Ward – Hertl13:33
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Wingels – Tierney – Goldobin9:06
xG 0.50–0.37 (58%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Haley – Lerg – Nieto6:21
xG 0.10–0.31 (23%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns13:52
xG 1.40–0.33 (81%)attempts 18–11goals 2–1
- Vlasic – Braun13:58
xG 0.83–0.29 (74%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Burns – Dillon2:24
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).