Sat, Nov 7, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Washington Capitals 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 110 | 08 | 13 | 04 | 0 | 225 |
| WSH | 011 | 16 | 111 | 03 | 1 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:36TORDaniel WinnikAssists: Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 4:51WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 9:27TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–1
- P3 19:59WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WSH T.J. Oshie stopped
- 2. TOR PA Parenteau stopped
- 3. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 4. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
- 5. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 6. TOR Joffrey Lupul stopped
- 7. WSH Alex Ovechkin scored
- 8. TOR Nazem Kadri stopped
Penalties (13)
- P1 10:00TORNazem Kadri: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:36WSHBrooks Orpik: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:12TORNazem Kadri: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:52TORNick Spaling: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:05WSHAndre Burakovsky: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:06WSHTom Wilson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:06TORDion Phaneuf: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:26TORRoman Polak: Interference2 min
- P3 8:12WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:12WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:12TORNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:09TORLeo Komarov: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:08TORMatt Hunwick: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against Spaling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – van Riemsdyk – Kadri9:26
xG 0.24–0.12 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Lupul – Grabner – Spaling4:16
xG 0.09–0.01 (86%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Boyes – Grabner – Froese2:46
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Grabner – Spaling – Froese2:12
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Harrington8:59
xG 0.21–0.02 (90%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner11:11
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Rielly2:30
xG 0.08–0.05 (61%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Williams – Beagle8:48
xG 0.25–0.06 (81%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov6:16
xG 0.09–0.12 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Laich – Latta – Wilson4:34
xG 0.01–0.05 (19%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Johansson – Burakovsky8:31
xG 0.06–0.30 (17%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner11:23
xG 0.25–0.13 (65%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Orlov – Schmidt11:36
xG 0.05–0.12 (31%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Orpik – Carlson11:49
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).