Sat, Nov 7, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Ottawa Senators 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 29 | 05 | 00 | 221 |
| CAR | 014 | 111 | 118 | 13 | 346 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:21CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Victor Rask · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 11:37OTTAlex ChiassonPPAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Mark Stone · Tip-in, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 15:59OTTChris WidemanAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 19:56CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 2:51CARJordan StaalGWGAssists: Justin Faulk, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:43OTTMark Borowiecki: Interference2 min
- P2 4:17OTTAlex Chiasson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:27OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:13CARJustin Faulk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 18:35CARRiley Nash: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMichalek – Chiasson – Pageau8:56
xG 0.22–0.08 (73%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Turris – Stone – Prince12:41
xG 0.27–0.31 (47%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad13:39
xG 0.44–0.72 (38%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- Neil – Puempel – Lazar4:35
xG 0.13–0.77 (14%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Borowiecki11:08
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Wiercioch3:12
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson17:55
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Versteeg – Rask9:17
xG 0.43–0.11 (80%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Rask – Lindholm6:12
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- McClement – Malone – McGinn2:42
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Nash – Skinner – Lindholm7:00
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Faulk12:31
xG 0.50–0.12 (80%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Jordan – Murphy13:12
xG 0.76–0.43 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Pesce12:38
xG 0.62–0.47 (57%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).