Tue, Nov 10, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Carolina Hurricanes 0, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 08 | 014 | 011 | 033 |
| NYR | 23 | 014 | 16 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:21NYRJesper FastGWGAssists: Emerson Etem, Keith Yandle · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 9:32NYRRick NashAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Dan Girardi · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 0:13NYRRyan McDonaghAssists: Rick Nash · Deflected, 0.01 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:20NYRRick Nash: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:43NYRDan Girardi: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:31NYRKevin Klein: Kneeing2 min
- P2 5:52CARRon Hainsey: Interference2 min
- P2 16:06NYRMarc Staal: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:31NYRKevin Klein: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:28NYRJarret Stoll: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:39CARNathan Gerbe: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestGerbe – Staal – Terry8:48
xG 0.54–0.10 (85%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Rask – Lindholm8:52
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 12–3goals 0–2
- McClement – Nordstrom – McGinn5:19
xG 0.05–0.06 (48%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Versteeg – Nash – Skinner8:20
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Pesce2:35
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Faulk10:16
xG 0.57–0.30 (66%)attempts 19–7goals 0–2
- Liles – Pesce11:32
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Etem – Fast7:16
xG 0.41–0.28 (59%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Hayes8:25
xG 0.21–0.32 (40%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello10:44
xG 0.15–0.34 (31%)attempts 4–16goals 2–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Miller9:30
xG 0.07–0.53 (12%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Staal4:06
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh12:02
xG 0.15–0.43 (26%)attempts 3–16goals 2–0
- Boyle – Staal10:41
xG 0.14–0.43 (25%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).