Tue, Nov 10, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 010 | 212 | 330 |
| DAL | 012 | 116 | 110 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:38TORPeter HollandPPAssists: Jake Gardiner, Tyler Bozak · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 19:26DALPatrick SharpAssists: Jason Demers, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 5:39DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Jason Demers · Backhand, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 12:38TORPA ParenteauAssists: Morgan Rielly, Shawn Matthias · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 16:32TORJake GardinerGWGAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Leo Komarov · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (2)
- P1 17:05DALJohnny Oduya: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:48TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spaling won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Holland – Froese8:25
xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Komarov – van Riemsdyk – Kadri13:09
xG 0.43–0.51 (46%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Matthias – Bozak11:55
xG 0.34–0.44 (44%)attempts 10–15goals 1–2
- Lupul – Grabner – Spaling12:25
xG 0.21–0.53 (29%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Harrington12:23
xG 0.49–0.31 (62%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Gardiner18:53
xG 0.57–0.59 (49%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Rielly18:00
xG 0.61–0.69 (47%)attempts 8–18goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Eakin – Janmark12:40
xG 0.49–0.31 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Fiddler – Sceviour8:37
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Sharp – Benn – Seguin14:27
xG 0.61–0.61 (50%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Roussel – Faksa – Nichushkin9:55
xG 0.31–0.34 (47%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Demers16:05
xG 0.68–0.43 (61%)attempts 23–12goals 2–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg22:16
xG 0.82–0.79 (51%)attempts 25–18goals 0–0
- Benn – Jokipakka13:32
xG 0.24–0.64 (27%)attempts 10–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).