Thu, Nov 12, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Colorado Avalanche 3, Boston Bruins 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 27 | 013 | 110 | 330 |
| BOS | 27 | 013 | 07 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:12BOSZdeno CharaAssists: Matt Beleskey, Brett Connolly · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 5:51BOSRyan SpoonerPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 12:08COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Blake Comeau, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 19:31COLFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Erik Johnson, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 6:49COLMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:24COLAndreas Martinsen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:34BOSTyler Randell: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 7:34BOSTyler Randell: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:34COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:46BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:46COLGabriel Landeskog: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P2 12:56BOSColin Miller: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:00BOSFrank Vatrano: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSkille – Street – Grigorenko2:33
xG 0.12–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Duchene – Street – MacKinnon2:07
xG 0.05–0.01 (87%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Skille – Duchene – MacKinnon2:09
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Iginla – Comeau – Soderberg13:34
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Gormley10:18
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Johnson17:32
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 19–10goals 2–0
- Holden – Barrie14:12
xG 0.57–0.49 (53%)attempts 19–15goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Krejci – Vatrano9:03
xG 0.46–0.34 (58%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Marchand – Hayes – Kemppainen2:57
xG 0.12–0.02 (86%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Hayes2:59
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Randell – Kemppainen2:25
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Miller8:59
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Chara – Miller12:51
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Chara – Miller2:05
xG 0.01–0.06 (13%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).