Thu, Nov 12, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Vancouver Canucks 2, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 17 | 019 | 19 | 235 |
| OTT | 17 | 18 | 110 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:48VANSven BaertschiAssists: Radim Vrbata, Bo Horvat · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 13:02OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 14:00OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Kyle Turris, Mike Hoffman · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 18:05OTTChris WidemanPPGWGAssists: Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 19:36VANAlexander EdlerPPAssists: Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:47VANAdam Cracknell: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:29VANChris Higgins: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:44OTTCody Ceci: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 4:36VANDan Hamhuis: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:00OTTMarc Methot: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:07VANHenrik Sedin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:29OTTErik Karlsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Baertschi – Horvat9:02
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
- Higgins – Cracknell – Virtanen9:31
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen10:42
xG 0.18–0.14 (57%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Burrows – Dorsett – McCann8:47
xG 0.12–0.10 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Weber12:46
xG 0.44–0.10 (82%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Bartkowski – Hutton12:43
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Bartkowski2:41
xG 0.16–0.07 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Hoffman – Stone11:47
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Ryan – Zibanejad – Puempel8:07
xG 0.09–0.22 (29%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Michalek – Chiasson – Pageau9:57
xG 0.18–0.42 (30%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
- Neil – Smith – Lazar11:17
xG 0.15–0.40 (27%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson17:31
xG 0.63–0.12 (84%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Wideman8:20
xG 0.10–0.33 (23%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Cowen – Ceci15:24
xG 0.06–0.69 (8%)attempts 6–26goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).