Thu, Nov 12, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Nashville Predators 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 08 | 17 | 02 | 1 | 223 |
| NSH | 04 | 08 | 19 | 01 | 0 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 2:40NSHShea WeberPPAssists: James Neal, Filip Forsberg · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 5:52TORTyler BozakAssists: Shawn Matthias, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 2. TOR PA Parenteau stopped
- 3. NSH Ryan Ellis stopped
- 4. TOR Joffrey Lupul stopped
- 5. NSH Roman Josi stopped
- 6. TOR Nazem Kadri stopped
- 7. NSH James Neal stopped
- 8. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
- 9. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 10. TOR Peter Holland scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:10NSHMike Fisher: Interference2 min
- P1 13:29NSHRyan Ellis: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:37TORPA Parenteau: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:28TORJoffrey Lupul: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:51NSHMike Fisher: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:44TORRoman Polak: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:49TORMichael Grabner: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spaling won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – van Riemsdyk – Kadri12:44
xG 0.53–0.39 (57%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Matthias – Bozak11:14
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Grabner – Holland – Froese5:28
xG 0.02–0.04 (34%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Lupul – Winnik – Spaling8:15
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Rielly15:51
xG 0.86–0.24 (78%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Polak – Rielly2:38
xG 0.16–0.04 (79%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Hunwick2:25
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Wilson – Smith8:35
xG 0.42–0.06 (88%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Bourque – Watson – Sissons7:50
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Jarnkrok – Salomaki8:39
xG 0.35–0.15 (71%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Forsberg2:28
xG 0.02–0.08 (18%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Jones14:15
xG 0.68–0.06 (92%)attempts 20–2goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm14:46
xG 0.24–0.33 (43%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi15:25
xG 0.68–0.86 (44%)attempts 23–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).