Thu, Nov 12, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Edmonton Oilers 1, Arizona Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 014 | 07 | 128 |
| ARI | 17 | 210 | 14 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:03EDMTaylor HallAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Andrej Sekera · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 16:49ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Brad Richardson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 13:47ARIShane DoanPPGWGAssists: Max Domi, Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 17:29ARIStefan ElliottAssists: John Scott, Kyle Chipchura · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–3
- P3 11:28ARIMax DomiAssists: Brad Richardson, Michael Stone · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:25EDMNail Yakupov: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:06ARIJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:53EDMAndrej Sekera: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 19:44ARIShane Doan: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:28ARIJordan Martinook: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:38EDMLeon Draisaitl: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:28ARIZbynek Michalek: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Draisaitl3:18
xG 0.25–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Letestu – Pakarinen – Yakupov6:18
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Purcell – Eberle – Lander6:47
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Hall – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl7:27
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Davidson13:33
xG 0.58–0.14 (80%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Fayne – Klefbom13:21
xG 0.46–0.45 (51%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Sekera – Nurse13:55
xG 0.22–0.35 (39%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestGordon – Chipchura – Scott6:39
xG 0.45–0.11 (81%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Doan – Richardson – Martinook9:01
xG 0.28–0.38 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Hanzal – Rieder – Duclair9:47
xG 0.09–0.26 (24%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Vermette – Boedker – Domi10:42
xG 0.09–0.29 (25%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestElliott – Murphy13:56
xG 0.53–0.26 (67%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson15:09
xG 0.59–0.58 (50%)attempts 14–13goals 2–1
- Michalek – Dahlbeck13:20
xG 0.10–0.47 (17%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).