Fri, Nov 13, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
New York Islanders 4, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 114 | 15 | 210 | 429 |
| ANA | 07 | 19 | 09 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Kyle Okposo, Mikhail Grabovski · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 9:35NYICal ClutterbuckGWGAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 11:23ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 2:47NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Josh Bailey, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 16:28NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Anders Lee, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:14ANARyan Getzlaf: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:21ANAKevin Bieksa: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:41NYIJohnny Boychuk: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:07ANAChris Wagner: Holding2 min
- P2 9:55NYIMikhail Grabovski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:36NYIJohnny Boychuk: Holding2 min
- P2 18:53ANACam Fowler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:00NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:00ANAKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:00NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:00ANAKevin Bieksa: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:00ANAChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Tavares – Nelson13:51
xG 0.70–0.49 (59%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Bailey – Lee9:57
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Bernier – Grabovski – Kulemin12:12
xG 0.46–0.51 (47%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:21
xG 0.22–0.36 (38%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Leddy17:03
xG 1.02–0.37 (74%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Strait – Pelech12:23
xG 0.29–0.47 (39%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Boychuk – de Haan13:57
xG 0.56–0.83 (40%)attempts 20–22goals 2–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Stewart – Maroon12:16
xG 0.60–0.25 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Cogliano – Silfverberg12:00
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
- Hagelin – Wagner – Friberg4:34
xG 0.08–0.23 (25%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell14:22
xG 0.49–0.66 (42%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bieksa – Fowler16:08
xG 0.76–0.72 (51%)attempts 17–22goals 0–1
- Stoner – Vatanen14:11
xG 0.52–0.54 (49%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Manson – Lindholm12:33
xG 0.29–0.56 (34%)attempts 11–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).