Sat, Nov 14, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Colorado Avalanche 6, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 38 | 13 | 213 | 624 |
| MTL | 018 | 114 | 08 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:26COLMikhail GrigorenkoAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 18:25COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 18:38COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko, Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 8:48MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Max Pacioretty · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 12:55COLBlake ComeauSHUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 11:05COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.38 xG5–1
- P3 14:10COLJohn MitchellAssists: Andreas Martinsen, Cody McLeod · Wrist, 0.30 xG6–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:58COLJohn Mitchell: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:59COLBen Street: Holding2 min
- P2 9:33MTLAlexander Semin: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:43COLMatt Duchene: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:56COLMikhail Grigorenko: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:12MTLTom Gilbert: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – McLeod – Martinsen8:21
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Duchene – Grigorenko – MacKinnon12:39
xG 0.36–0.29 (56%)attempts 9–11goals 3–0
- Skille – Street – Everberg7:30
xG 0.19–0.47 (29%)attempts 5–20goals 0–1
- Iginla – Comeau – Soderberg15:08
xG 0.38–1.11 (26%)attempts 7–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Gormley2:25
xG 0.07–0.01 (82%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Guenin – Gormley11:10
xG 0.21–0.24 (46%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie17:05
xG 0.62–0.69 (47%)attempts 10–25goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:45
xG 0.98–0.11 (90%)attempts 22–6goals 1–1
- Semin – Eller – Galchenyuk11:58
xG 0.58–0.20 (74%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Smith-Pelly – Flynn9:14
xG 0.10–0.17 (38%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Weise11:00
xG 0.32–0.47 (41%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Beaulieu17:16
xG 1.06–0.58 (65%)attempts 21–11goals 0–2
- Gilbert – Pateryn12:49
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban12:26
xG 0.34–0.49 (40%)attempts 16–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).