Sun, Nov 15, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 19 | 15 | 326 |
| NYR | 08 | 211 | 211 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:57TORPeter HollandAssists: Byron Froese · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 0:44NYRRyan McDonaghAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Dan Girardi · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 13:55NYRDerek StepanAssists: Chris Kreider, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 17:38TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Byron Froese, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–2
- P3 3:37NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kevin Klein · Snap, 0.22 xG2–3
- P3 5:15TORDion PhaneufAssists: Tyler Bozak · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 19:06NYRMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Backhand, 0.26 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:21TORNazem Kadri: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 9:41NYRDan Girardi: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:34NYRChris Kreider: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:21TORPA Parenteau: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:36NYRDerick Brassard: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spaling won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Winnik – Froese5:14
xG 0.50–0.11 (82%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Grabner – Holland – Froese3:02
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Matthias – Bozak11:30
xG 0.56–0.53 (51%)attempts 12–11goals 1–3
- Lupul – Spaling – Froese2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner13:37
xG 0.88–0.22 (80%)attempts 16–8goals 2–1
- Polak – Harrington7:27
xG 0.40–0.09 (81%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Polak – Gardiner2:26
xG 0.11–0.13 (47%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Zuccarello12:42
xG 1.43–0.84 (63%)attempts 20–9goals 3–1
- Stoll – Moore – Fast11:01
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Miller12:10
xG 0.11–0.30 (26%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Hayes6:36
xG 0.14–0.57 (20%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh16:06
xG 0.97–0.54 (64%)attempts 21–12goals 3–0
- Klein – Yandle3:35
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Klein – Staal15:40
xG 0.16–0.54 (23%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).