Tue, Nov 17, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New Jersey Devils 2, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 29 | 05 | 220 |
| CGY | 27 | 111 | 012 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:04CGYTJ BrodieAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 13:33CGYMatt StajanAssists: David Jones, Joe Colborne · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 4:01NJDBobby FarnhamAssists: Stephen Gionta, Brian O'Neill · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–2
- P2 6:09CGYDavid JonesGWGAssists: Joe Colborne, Matt Stajan · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 8:06NJDJordin TootooPPAssists: Lee Stempniak, Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:19CGYJoe Colborne: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:15NJDLee Stempniak: Interference2 min
- P2 6:40CGYMicheal Ferland: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:28NJDJon Merrill: Delaying game2 min
- P3 2:12NJDDamon Severson: Interference2 min
- P3 5:49CGYDougie Hamilton: Holding2 min
- P3 14:19NJDLee Stempniak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jooris won the faceoff against Gionta
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Stempniak – Henrique10:17
xG 0.60–0.36 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
- Zajac – Palmieri – Kalinin10:17
xG 0.52–0.40 (57%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Tootoo – Tlusty – Josefson9:48
xG 0.07–0.12 (35%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Gionta – Farnham – O'Neill6:17
xG 0.48–0.61 (44%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Schlemko – Merrill11:14
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson15:10
xG 0.41–0.57 (42%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Moore – Severson14:43
xG 0.57–0.89 (39%)attempts 10–10goals 1–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Bennett9:58
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Bollig – Ferland – Jooris6:25
xG 0.54–0.48 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan10:16
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Stajan – Jones – Colborne11:22
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Wideman11:23
xG 0.70–0.13 (84%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Russell – Hamilton17:04
xG 0.53–0.51 (51%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Giordano – Brodie14:36
xG 0.54–1.01 (35%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).