Wed, Nov 18, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Washington Capitals 2, Detroit Red Wings 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 110 | 08 | 08 | 11 | 227 |
| DET | 17 | 013 | 06 | 00 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:48DETDylan LarkinAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 10:54WSHJustin WilliamsPPAssists: Matt Niskanen, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- OT 0:45WSHEvgeny KuznetsovGWGAssists: Matt Niskanen, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:29DETLuke Glendening: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:20WSHNate Schmidt: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:20DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:40DETTomas Tatar: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:15DETDanny DeKeyser: Interference2 min
- P2 1:33WSHKarl Alzner: Holding2 min
- P3 6:39DETDanny DeKeyser: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:08DETDylan Larkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom7:58
xG 0.37–0.23 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Laich – Latta – Wilson9:39
xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Johansson – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky7:09
xG 0.23–0.30 (44%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Williams – Beagle7:49
xG 0.05–0.18 (22%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Niskanen – Alzner12:46
xG 0.35–0.41 (47%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov2:20
xG 0.02–0.11 (14%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Chorney – Orlov5:49
xG 0.04–0.15 (20%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Tatar – Larkin12:32
xG 0.57–0.27 (68%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Pulkkinen2:58
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist4:36
xG 0.10–0.06 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Pulkkinen – Athanasiou2:35
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green12:14
xG 0.51–0.15 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Ericsson – DeKeyser13:15
xG 0.74–0.58 (56%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Green – Kindl2:08
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).