Thu, Nov 19, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Colorado Avalanche 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 113 | 08 | 210 | 331 |
| PIT | 010 | 310 | 110 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:34COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–0
- P2 5:35PITDavid PerronAssists: Ian Cole, Beau Bennett · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 7:04PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Kris Letang, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 7:43PITChris KunitzAssists: Nick Bonino · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 8:49COLTyson BarrieAssists: Jarome Iginla · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 11:56PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Ian Cole · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 18:37COLMatt DucheneAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Mikhail Grigorenko · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:08COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:08PITPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:32PITBeau Bennett: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:26PITPascal Dupuis: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:24COLCody McLeod: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:19PITPascal Dupuis: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:26PITBen Lovejoy: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:31COLFrancois Beauchemin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:30COLNathan MacKinnon: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:08COLNick Holden: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:16PITNick Bonino: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Landeskog – MacKinnon13:43
xG 0.80–0.28 (74%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Iginla – Grigorenko – Martinsen2:15
xG 0.11–0.14 (42%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Skille – Wagner – Everberg3:04
xG 0.03–0.12 (23%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Iginla – Comeau – Soderberg7:06
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Johnson15:37
xG 0.74–0.46 (62%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
- Redmond – Gormley7:36
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie12:10
xG 0.11–0.37 (23%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Bonino – Bennett7:23
xG 0.17–0.02 (88%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Perron8:44
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Cullen – Fehr – Plotnikov6:19
xG 0.29–0.23 (55%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Crosby – Hornqvist10:55
xG 0.28–0.57 (33%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Clendening10:20
xG 0.64–0.05 (92%)attempts 15–4goals 1–1
- Scuderi – Letang11:52
xG 0.17–0.19 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Lovejoy2:08
xG 0.03–0.06 (32%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).