Fri, Nov 20, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Los Angeles Kings 2, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 114 | 115 | 08 | 237 |
| DET | 110 | 29 | 010 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:10DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 16:21LAKJeff CarterSHAssists: Anze Kopitar, Alec Martinez · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 3:45DETMike GreenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 6:08DETDylan LarkinGWGAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
- P2 10:43LAKJeff CarterAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:41DETLuke Glendening: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:39LAKDerek Forbort: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:09LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:52LAKMarian Gaborik: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:30DETJustin Abdelkader: Holding2 min
- P2 9:15DETAlexey Marchenko: Holding2 min
- P2 9:17LAKMarian Gaborik: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 12:58DETJustin Abdelkader: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Lucic – Toffoli11:14
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Brown – Lewis – Shore6:11
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Kopitar – Pearson6:44
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Pearson3:22
xG 0.09–0.05 (63%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez13:14
xG 0.49–0.02 (96%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb14:50
xG 0.89–0.45 (66%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- McBain – Muzzin2:01
xG 0.37–0.01 (97%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Tatar – Sheahan7:03
xG 0.32–0.10 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin7:30
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Richards – Datsyuk – Pulkkinen10:50
xG 0.14–0.32 (31%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Miller – Helm – Glendening7:15
xG 0.01–0.39 (3%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Smith2:23
xG 0.74–0.09 (89%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Kronwall – Marchenko3:08
xG 0.04–0.02 (65%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green10:33
xG 0.19–0.32 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).