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Ice Lab

Centre · #71

Dylan Larkin

Detroit Red Wings
Age
30
Shoots
Left
Height
185 cm
Weight
90 kg
Born
Waterford, USA
Draft
2014, round 1, #15 (DET)

Career · 2015–16 to 2026–27

Games
809
Goals
277
Points
645
TOI per game
19:32
xGF% (5v5)
49.2%
Goals above expected
+6.1

Season by season

The regular-season line for each season, with the total, by team for traded players.

2015–16DET80232245+1116:3322110.4%518.949.6%
2016–17DET80171532−2816:091789.6%715.143.9%
2017–18DET82164763−919:512326.9%821.949.1%
2018–19DET76324173−621:5128711.1%1529.651.2%
2019–20DET71193453−2121:152238.5%1323.149.3%
2020–21DET4491423−1420:241346.7%614.248.5%
2021–22DET71313869−1819:3921214.6%1322.049.3%
2022–23DET80324779−719:3324413.1%3129.449.3%
2023–24DET68333669+520:1022114.9%2627.549.7%
2024–25DET82304070−1620:0423412.8%2734.350.8%
2025–26DET74343367+320:1122914.8%2434.248.1%
2026–27DET1112020:41425.0%10.864.9%
Total1 team809277368645−10019:322,41911.5%176270.949.2%

Form

Rolling averages smooth out single games so the trend shows.

Form, ten-game rolling

Points and individual expected goals per game (left scale), averaged over the previous ten games. Ice time is on the second chart.

Points per gameixG per gameTOI per game (minutes)
00.511.52100200300400500600700800
12m14m16m18m20m22m24m100200300400500600700800Game

Player card

Model-based

How 2015–16 to 2026–27 compares with everyone else at the position over the same seasons, and the players with the most similar profile.

Overall rating

1st line

95th percentile among qualified forwards, blending scoring 40%, play-driving 40%, usage 20%.

  1. 1st line
  2. 2nd line
  3. 3rd line
  4. 4th line
  5. Extra / AHL

Scoring

1st line
  • Goals /601.0588th pct
  • Assists /601.4089th pct
  • ixG /601.0391st pct
  • Goals above expected+6.183rd pct

Play-driving

1st line
  • xGF% (5v5)49.2%55th pct
  • CF% (5v5)50.8%74th pct
  • Relative xGF%+2.988th pct
  • Penalty diff /600.2571st pct

Usage

1st line
  • TOI per game19:3297th pct
  • PP time share55.1%91st pct
  • Offensive zone starts54.5%49th pct
  • Quality of competition25.3%95th pct

Percentiles among forwards with 200+ minutes at 5-on-5 and 20+ games. Ratings rank each column's average percentile among the same players and read it as a role on a depth chart (how).

Most similar players this season

  1. Bo HorvatVAN/NYI0.97
  2. Tyler SeguinDAL0.97
  3. Mika ZibanejadOTT/NYR0.97
  4. Logan CoutureSJS0.95
  5. Dylan CozensBUF/OTT0.95
  6. Macklin CelebriniSJS0.94

Faceoffs

How often Larkin wins the draw over 2015–16 to 2026–27, against whom and where, and what a win leads to. Ranked among players with 2154+ draws over the same seasons.

Win rate

52.8%

6587–5898 · #55 of 209 regulars, 74th percentile

Against an average centre

53.4%

Opponents won 50.6% of their draws; an average centre would have won 49.4% against them.

Wins above average

+424

Draws won beyond what an average centre facing the same opponents would have won.

Draws per game

16.9

12,485 draws in all.

By dot, attacking to the right

51%2272 · +0.458%3240 · +2.748%1516 · +2.457%351 · +0.145%309 · +1.158%337 · 0.044%316 · +1.056%2096 · +2.248%2048 · +1.6Attacking zone →← Defending zone

Win rate at each dot; the small numbers are draws and the xG swing (×100) of winning rather than losing there.

By zone

  • Offensive zone54.6% 2598–2157
  • Neutral zone51.3% 1838–1747
  • Defensive zone51.9% 2151–1994

By strength

  • Even strength51.7% 4739–4435
  • Power play58.7% 1271–894
  • Shorthanded50.4% 576–567

What a win leads to

Shot attempts in the next 20 seconds, for minus against, per 100 draws: +16 after a win, −15 after a loss. Each win was worth 1.8 expected goals per 100 draws more than a loss.

Most-faced opponents

Season by season

SeasonDrawsWin rateAgainst average
2015–1610041.0%41.3%
2016–1743245.4%45.6%
2017–18131449.9%50.3%
2018–19158754.5%54.8%
2019–20136252.4%52.8%
2020–2173049.5%50.6%
2021–22120452.3%53.0%
2022–23135554.4%54.7%
2023–24129355.4%56.3%
2024–25159954.5%55.4%
2025–26149252.9%53.9%
2026–271764.7%67.2%

Finishing

Model-based

Did the goals match the chances?

Goals against expected goals

Cumulative goals (solid) and individual xG (dashed) through the season. The gap is finishing: above the dashed line, the player scored more than an average shooter would from the same chances.

+6.1 goals above expected

-50050100150200250300100200300400500600700800Game

Goals above expected, everyone at the same position with 20+ games

−500+50+100

Speed and tracking

From the NHL's EDGE tracking system (2021–22 on): skating speed, shot speed, distance and zone time, for the selected seasons and then every tracked season, to show improvement or decline.

Tracking data (NHL EDGE)

Values from the NHL's puck and player tracking, with the NHL's own league percentile for each. Missing values mean the player wasn't tracked enough.

Tracking

  • Top skating speed35.5 km/h84th pct
  • Speed bursts over 20 mph447th pct
  • Hardest shot117.4 km/h35th pct
  • Distance skated6 km10th pct
  • Offensive-zone time44.6%75th pct
Tracking, season by season

Each season against the other forwards that season with 20+ games. A season in progress appears once half its games are played, as provisional: season bests only grow. Bursts and distance are per 60 minutes of ice time, so seasons with fewer games still compare. Percentiles are on these rates, so they can differ from the NHL's, which are on season totals.

This playerMedian forwardMiddle half (25th–75th percentile)Hollow dot: too few games to rank, or a season in progress (*, dashed). Dotted line: no NHL games that season.

Top skating speed

36.2 km/h56th pct

▼ −0.5 km/h since 2024–25

343536373821–2222–2323–2424–2525–262021–22: 37.5 km/h, 93rd percentile (71 games)2022–23: 37.0 km/h, 84th percentile (80 games)2023–24: 36.4 km/h, 67th percentile (68 games)2024–25: 36.7 km/h, 70th percentile (82 games)2025–26: 36.2 km/h, 56th percentile (74 games)

Bursts over 20 mph per 60

7.571st pct

▼ −1.1 since 2024–25

2468101221–2222–2323–2424–2525–262021–22: 10.0, 86th percentile (71 games)2022–23: 8.1, 79th percentile (80 games)2023–24: 8.0, 77th percentile (68 games)2024–25: 8.5, 78th percentile (82 games)2025–26: 7.5, 71st percentile (74 games)

Distance skated per 60

15.7 km63rd pct

▼ −0.4 km since 2024–25

14.51515.51616.521–2222–2323–2424–2525–262021–22: 15.9 km, 66th percentile (71 games)2022–23: 15.8 km, 69th percentile (80 games)2023–24: 15.4 km, 36th percentile (68 games)2024–25: 16.1 km, 79th percentile (82 games)2025–26: 15.7 km, 63rd percentile (74 games)

Hardest shot

147.6 km/h87th pct

▲ +0.4 km/h since 2024–25

13013514014515015521–2222–2323–2424–2525–262021–22: 146.9 km/h, 65th percentile (71 games)2022–23: 147.8 km/h, 72nd percentile (80 games)2023–24: 151.5 km/h, 85th percentile (68 games)2024–25: 147.2 km/h, 82nd percentile (82 games)2025–26: 147.6 km/h, 87th percentile (74 games)

Offensive-zone time

42.7%60th pct

▼ −2.1 points since 2024–25

38%40%42%44%46%21–2222–2323–2424–2525–262021–22: 44.2%, 81st percentile (71 games)2022–23: 44.7%, 81st percentile (80 games)2023–24: 44.6%, 80th percentile (68 games)2024–25: 44.8%, 86th percentile (82 games)2025–26: 42.7%, 60th percentile (74 games)