Sat, Nov 21, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New York Rangers 5, Florida Panthers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 113 | 19 | 28 | 11 | 531 |
| FLA | 013 | 215 | 215 | 00 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:08NYRRick NashAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 6:46FLANick BjugstadAssists: Brandon Pirri, Jussi Jokinen · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 13:22NYRRick NashAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Marc Staal · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 17:57FLAJussi JokinenPPAssists: Brandon Pirri, Reilly Smith · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 10:16NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 12:14NYRViktor StalbergAssists: Oscar Lindberg, J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 17:32FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.30 xG4–3
- P3 18:11FLAJaromir JagrAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
- OT 2:01NYRRick NashPPGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Dan Boyle · Snap, 0.04 xG5–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:18FLAJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:15FLAAaron Ekblad: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 6:40NYRRick Nash: Interference2 min
- P1 7:26NYRJarret Stoll: Holding2 min
- P1 13:40NYRMarc Staal: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:40FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:18NYRJ.T. Miller: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:47NYRDan Boyle: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:23NYRJ.T. Miller: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:49NYRViktor Stalberg: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:18NYRDan Boyle: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- OT 1:12FLARocco Grimaldi: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Zuccarello14:05
xG 0.54–0.11 (83%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Miller2:12
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Miller6:02
xG 0.05–0.21 (20%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Hayes5:34
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Klein – Staal6:06
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Boyle – McDonagh2:06
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh15:49
xG 0.67–0.82 (45%)attempts 11–20goals 3–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Trocheck – Grimaldi9:24
xG 0.18–0.06 (76%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Bolland – Howden8:55
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov12:50
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Pirri – Bjugstad8:07
xG 0.27–0.22 (56%)attempts 10–5goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad15:34
xG 0.96–0.71 (58%)attempts 19–12goals 1–2
- Kampfer – Petrovic13:32
xG 0.35–0.26 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Gudbranson15:07
xG 0.40–0.36 (53%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).