Sat, Nov 21, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Colorado Avalanche 3, Washington Capitals 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 010 | 210 | 17 | 327 |
| WSH | 411 | 011 | 310 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:05WSHJustin WilliamsAssists: Jason Chimera, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 7:15WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Taylor Chorney · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 10:00WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.01 xG0–3
- P1 19:17WSHNate SchmidtGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 5:31COLCody McLeodAssists: Blake Comeau, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
- P2 18:01COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 6:34WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: Jason Chimera, Matt Niskanen · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–5
- P3 10:07WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Jason Chimera, Jay Beagle · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–6
- P3 11:52COLAndreas MartinsenAssists: Zach Redmond, Mikhail Grigorenko · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–6
- P3 16:16WSHKarl AlznerAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–7
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:05COLCody McLeod: Interference2 min
- P1 18:14COLJarome Iginla: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:14WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:08COLJarome Iginla: Holding2 min
- P2 11:47WSHMichael Latta: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:47COLChris Wagner: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:47COLChris Wagner: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:38WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P3 5:05COLNathan MacKinnon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:49WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:49COLCody McLeod: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Grigorenko – Martinsen10:37
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Duchene – Landeskog – MacKinnon14:17
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Skille – Wagner – Everberg4:41
xG 0.16–0.15 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – McLeod12:54
xG 0.44–0.56 (44%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Barrie15:52
xG 0.81–0.52 (61%)attempts 18–13goals 1–2
- Beauchemin – Johnson16:13
xG 0.49–0.46 (51%)attempts 14–18goals 0–2
- Redmond – Gormley11:25
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Beagle – Galiev7:54
xG 0.38–0.23 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Laich – Latta – Wilson7:51
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom14:14
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 13–9goals 2–1
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov11:40
xG 0.30–0.49 (38%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestChorney – Orlov12:07
xG 0.55–0.12 (82%)attempts 15–4goals 2–0
- Alzner – Carlson2:05
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Carlson – Schmidt15:57
xG 0.58–0.77 (43%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).