Sat, Nov 21, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Arizona Coyotes 2, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 210 | 012 | 07 | 229 |
| WPG | 19 | 15 | 19 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:50WPGMark ScheifeleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 9:30ARIShane DoanPPAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Antoine Vermette · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–1
- P1 15:49ARIConnor MurphyPPAssists: Michael Stone, Anthony Duclair · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 12:48WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 11:09WPGChris ThorburnSHGWGAssists: Drew Stafford, Adam Pardy · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 8:12WPGTyler Myers: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P1 13:59WPGDustin Byfuglien: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:31ARIAnthony Duclair: Interference2 min
- P1 18:31WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Embellishment2 min
- P2 2:30WPGBlake Wheeler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:33ARIConnor Murphy: Interference2 min
- P2 9:46ARIMartin Hanzal: Holding2 min
- P2 15:14ARIShane Doan: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 2:18WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:54ARIMartin Hanzal: Interference2 min
- P3 6:47ARIPhilip Samuelsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:31WPGAndrew Ladd: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:03WPGAdam Lowry: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Burmistrov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Boedker – Domi5:32
xG 0.22–0.07 (76%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Rieder – Duclair7:05
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Martinook8:12
xG 0.22–0.30 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Gordon – Chipchura – Scott2:49
xG 0.02–0.20 (8%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Ekman-Larsson12:57
xG 0.95–0.54 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
- Samuelsson – Murphy7:22
xG 0.31–0.13 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Michalek – Dahlbeck12:51
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPeluso – Lowry – Copp2:30
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Stafford – Perreault – Scheifele9:10
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Burmistrov – Ehlers7:12
xG 0.17–0.36 (31%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little8:09
xG 0.08–0.38 (17%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Enstrom – Myers11:25
xG 0.12–0.29 (29%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Pardy11:36
xG 0.50–0.80 (38%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Stuart – Trouba10:26
xG 0.35–0.71 (33%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).